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        为什么三体问题无解
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    <h2 id="三体问题"><a href="#三体问题" class="headerlink" title="三体问题"></a>三体问题</h2><p><code>「三体」</code>第一部<code>「地球往事」</code>中有大量情节是关于一款三体游戏的描写，就是试图找三体问题的解。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>建立一个数学模型，使得三体任何一个时间断面的初始值已知时，能够预测三体系统以后的所有运动状态</p>
</blockquote>
<p>如果解决了三体问题，就是三体世界的救世主。</p>
<p>“一个努力的，一个延续了近两百个文明的努力，为解决三体问题的努力，寻找太阳运行规律的努力“</p>
<p>结果呢？最后已经确切的证明，三体问题无解。</p>
<p>什么原因？</p>
<blockquote>
<p>因为三体是一个混沌系统，会将微小的扰动无限放大，其运行规律从数学上讲是不可预测的。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>从数学上讲是啥意思？具体怎么个说法，小说里是没找到对应的细节了。</p>
<p>不过，这几天看到了 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1e8411B7w7">投资是怎样赚钱的</a> 这个视频，里面介绍了股市是个混沌系统，找到了答案。</p>
<h2 id="Logistic映射"><a href="#Logistic映射" class="headerlink" title="Logistic映射"></a>Logistic映射</h2><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91%E6%96%AF%E8%B0%9B%E6%98%A0%E5%B0%84">逻辑斯谛映射 </a>出自于Robert May 1976年发表的 「复杂动力学的简单数学模型 」这篇论文。</p>
<p><img src="https://s2.loli.net/2023/09/11/UuLdIXt5ZMWlgzx.png" alt="LogisticMap_BifurcationDiagram.png"></p>
<p>公式：<code>Xn+1 = aXn(1-Xn)</code>  ，核心思想：</p>
<figure class="highlight markdown"><table><tr><td class="gutter"><pre><span class="line">1</span><br><span class="line">2</span><br><span class="line">3</span><br><span class="line">4</span><br></pre></td><td class="code"><pre><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">在混沌系统中，不管初始条件有多接近，在足够长的时间之后，它们的轨道还是会相互分开。</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">这意味着，即使我们的模型很简单，所有的参数也都完全确定，长期预测也仍然是不可能的。</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br></pre></td></tr></table></figure>

<p>从数学上证明了混沌系统的不可预测性，三体问题是无解的。</p>
<h2 id="蝴蝶效应"><a href="#蝴蝶效应" class="headerlink" title="蝴蝶效应"></a>蝴蝶效应</h2><p>现代科技如此发达，可以准确把航天器按既定航线送到火星。为什么天气预报连两周后的天气都无法预测？</p>
<figure class="highlight markdown"><table><tr><td class="gutter"><pre><span class="line">1</span><br><span class="line">2</span><br><span class="line">3</span><br><span class="line">4</span><br><span class="line">5</span><br></pre></td><td class="code"><pre><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">因为气象是一个混沌系统，本质上来说，气象学就是搜集大量的气象数据，</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">比如说气温、气压、空气湿度、风速、风向等等这些数据，搜集回来以后，</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">利用数学的方法去解一个方程，来求解未来天气到底是怎样的一件事情。</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br></pre></td></tr></table></figure>

<blockquote>
<p>一只蝴蝶在巴西轻拍翅膀，可以导致一个月后德克萨斯州的一场龙卷风。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>在一个动态的系统中，初始条件的细微变化，会导致不同事件发展的顺序，有显著差异，能带动整个系统长期且巨大的链式反应。</p>
<h2 id="股票市场"><a href="#股票市场" class="headerlink" title="股票市场"></a>股票市场</h2><p>股票市场加上了<code>人</code>在市场上的情绪和行为，那就是比气象更复杂的混沌系统了，无法被准确预测涨跌。</p>
<p>看看股神<code>巴菲特</code>对于预测市场的态度：</p>
<figure class="highlight markdown"><table><tr><td class="gutter"><pre><span class="line">1</span><br><span class="line">2</span><br><span class="line">3</span><br><span class="line">4</span><br><span class="line">5</span><br></pre></td><td class="code"><pre><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">&quot;我从来没有见过能够预测市场走势的人。&quot;</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">&quot;对于未来一年后的股市走势、利率以及经济动态，我们不做任何预测。我们过去不会、现在不会、将来也不会预测。&quot;</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">&quot;我不知道股市明天、下周或者明年会如何波动。&quot;。</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br></pre></td></tr></table></figure>

<p><code>芒格</code>：</p>
<figure class="highlight markdown"><table><tr><td class="gutter"><pre><span class="line">1</span><br><span class="line">2</span><br><span class="line">3</span><br><span class="line">4</span><br></pre></td><td class="code"><pre><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">我们不预测市场何时崩盘，也不预测大的宏观趋势。我们没那个本事。</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">我们根据相对价值选择股票。选好了之后，无论宏观经济如何波动，我们都安之若素。</span></span><br><span class="line"><span class="code">```</span></span><br></pre></td></tr></table></figure>



<p>以上，从三体问题到预测天气和股市，这个是无解的。</p>
<p>参考：<br><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://book.douban.com/subject/2567698/">三体i-地球往事</a><br><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1e8411B7w7">投资是怎样赚钱的</a><br><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E9%80%BB%E8%BE%91%E6%96%AF%E8%B0%9B%E6%98%A0%E5%B0%84">维基百科-Logistic映射</a></p>

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